- Q: What is your current research topic?
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We are conducting research into resource assessments, understanding of resource trends, and resource management based on the results of our research, focusing on marine mammals such as whales, seals, and sea lions, whose populations have declined significantly in the past, as well as various aquatic organisms such as sea turtles, tuna, pacific saury, and tropical eels.
To explain it in a more casual way, it was once thought that marine resources were inexhaustible, and that no matter how much we caught them, they would continue to increase. However, it goes without saying that if the amount of fish caught continues to be greater than the amount that increases in the natural world, the amount of marine resources will continue to decrease. This raises questions such as, "What mechanism causes the amount of marine resources to increase or decrease?" and "Can we use marine resources sustainably into the future as the environment and the fishing industry itself change from moment to moment?" To answer these questions, we are conducting research on the species I mentioned earlier, using a two-pronged approach of mathematics and data science.
- Q: What motivated you to start researching this?
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- I was originally a graduate of the Faculty of Education's mathematics teacher training course, and was interested in pure mathematics, but I was drawn to the process of expressing uncertainty probabilistically and mathematically, and then clarifying it through data, and so I began to work in the field of mathematical statistics. Although my starting point was quite far removed from the ocean and fisheries, I became interested in concretely and theoretically estimating the current abundance and changes of living organisms from the perspective of how to actually use statistical methods to benefit the world, and so I ended up working at the former Tokyo University of Fisheries (now Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology). One big turning point came in 2003, when I first participated in an international conference called the International Whaling Commission (IWC) Scientific Committee, and studied abroad in Norway for a short period of time. I was attracted by the excitement of combining mathematical models and data to unravel the population and changes of those large whales, and by the lively discussions that were held internationally with scientific evidence, and these were the triggers for me to become involved in research on international resource management, including marine mammals, tuna, and saury.
- Q: What is interesting, rewarding and important about your research?
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I find it rewarding and responsible, rather than just interesting, to be able to consider and propose specific ways to ensure that the marine resources we eat every day can be used sustainably for years and decades to come.
Returning to the topic of whales, the IWC has strict resource management that imposes large restrictions on catch quotas if population estimates are uncertain. This is a story from before Japan withdrew from the IWC, but even if you claim that the population estimate of a certain whale species is 10, you need to scientifically explain that this is reliable information and convince others. You also need to present the genetic population structure of that species. In our research, we usually persuade others through exchanges such as paper reviews, but at international conferences, we have to settle things on the spot through discussion based on documents prepared in advance. In the midst of the fierce confrontation between whaling and anti-whaling countries at the time, we had to objectively and effectively build up our arguments. It was a very valuable experience to be involved in such a forum. - Q: What are some of the challenges and difficulties you face in your research?
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For example, in the case of whales, we can design the content and methods of the survey to obtain the information necessary for the research purpose, but on the other hand, for fishery species such as saury and tuna, the information is often based on information obtained from fishing, and if there is any bias, it is necessary to remove it to make the information usable and then analyze the resource amount and its changes. In addition, these tasks and analysis methods also need to be custom-made for each species, which is interesting but also very difficult. In fact, when considering how to manage fishery resources, we check in advance with simulations whether the resource can really be managed appropriately. In this case, a custom-made virtual model is created on a computer and a simulation is performed, but by assuming climate change and ecosystem changes, which are recent problems, in the virtual model, more realistic settings can be made. In addition, in order to respond flexibly to various changes, by determining in advance the rules of resource management that can incorporate information obtained in the future in a timely manner, we can explore management methods that are resistant to such environmental changes and minimize risks. I also feel that it is rewarding to be able to devote my efforts to research resource management methods that can respond not only to the artificial influence of fishing but also to environmental and climatic changes, and I am currently working on such research with students in my laboratory. However, even with such efforts, there are some fishery resources that are difficult to manage. For example, the current catch of Pacific saury has drastically decreased, putting the resource in a precarious state. How to overcome this situation, as well as developing methodologies to increase the feasibility of achieving this and promoting international cooperation, are major challenges.
- Q: What kind of social impact can you expect from your research?
Please tell me about short-term (1-2 years from now) and long-term (up to 10 years from now) plans.
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It may be closer to the medium term than the short term, but as I mentioned in the section on challenges, the stock of saury has drastically decreased and is in an urgent situation. In order to prevent further overfishing, a method for determining the total allowable catch of saury (harvest control rules) was agreed upon at an international conference called the North Pacific Fisheries Commission in April 2024. It was selected from several options that I proposed after calculating on behalf of the commission. If we catch them in this way, we have made a prediction that although they will not fully recover, the situation will be better than it is now. If this happens, I believe that we will have contributed to the improvement of not only saury as a fishery resource in Japan, but also fishery resources internationally.
In the long term, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, including the waters around Japan, is in a worse state of resources than other waters. There are various reasons for this, including the large number of countries using the waters and environmental changes, but in order to sustainably use the fishery resources that support Japan's food situation, it is important to properly manage them. Japan plans to expand the number of fish species subject to resource assessment to about 200 species, and we believe that we can contribute to society by improving the accuracy of resource assessment and management methods. - Q: Which SDGs can your research contribute to?
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"Goal 4: Quality Education for All"
I originally graduated from the Faculty of Education, so I intend to prepare my classes thoroughly despite my busy schedule, but by sharing the latest information I gain from international conferences and the discussions I have had, I hope to spark an interest in working internationally in the future.
"Goal 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change" "Goal 14: Protect and sustainably use the oceans and seas"
Fisheries resources are greatly affected by climate change, but rather than simply being affected, I believe we can contribute through research into how to respond appropriately based on predictions and apply this to management.
"Goal 17: Partnerships for the Goals"
Although negotiations are necessary at international conferences, there are many goals that can be achieved through collaboration, and I believe that we can contribute to the SDGs. - Q: What is the significance of conducting research at Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology?
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- There are many professors at the university who are involved in fisheries resources, so I think there are many issues that we can work on together. Also, as a teacher, I find it attractive that there are many students who are highly ambitious and interested in marine life.
- Q: What are your priorities and policies when conducting research?
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I think the most dangerous thing is to think you understand something. When you read a document or start something new, you may think you understand about 8% of it, but in reality you only understand about 2% of it. To check this, I try to explain it to myself. Sometimes I explain it verbally, and other times I write it down on a blank piece of paper to check. I always ask myself questions and try to check my understanding.
I also intend to always keep in mind that I am a budding researcher and to learn humbly. - Professor Toshihide Kitamon's OA paper is here
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Paper title: Empirical validation of integrated stock assessment models to ensuring risk equivalence: A pathway to resilient fisheries management
Author/co-author: (Contributed equally to this work with) Laurie Kell, Iago Mosqueira, Henning Winker, Rishi Sharma, Toshihide Kitakado and Massimiliano Cardinale
Published in: PLOS ONE
Publication date: November 2024
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302576
